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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 26, 2013 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> we think that's going to give a good snapshot of consumers willingness to buy across various segments. >> all right, you did it in 28 seconds. all right, michael, 30 seconds. go. >> great. thank you for the opportunity, sue. when we look at it, we're still in a slow gdp growth, high volatility environment. admittedly, all of the different conundrums we're faced with, italian elections, some of the global macro economic issues, we are investing in one thing, and that's food. to feed a client portfolio, the maryland-goldman conference. exciting, fantastic names. that's what we're focused on tomorrow. >> all right, and finally, stephen. >> yeah, hi. i think durable goods tomorrow morning, that's going to set the tone. i think we are expecting a down print around 3%. maybe auto sales might help that out. nissan, ford, gm boost that a little bit. but really a battle of the s&p 500, looking at 1497. a strong support, all through
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the month of february. broke through it yesterday. tried to break through it back on the upside today and defended well by the bears. we're watching that point sharp. >> all right, gentlemen, thank you very much. you all came in under time. thank you so much. scott? >> give us a little bit of chance to talk about the market we saw today. certainly a different story from how the day ended yesterday. a big snap back today. triple digit gain. the market seemed to take comfort into what bernanke said today in his testimony before the senate banking committee. fed's not going anywhere any time soon. economy continues to expand at a moderate but uneven pace. and warned of the significant headwinds that do exist for the market, if the sequester takes hold at the end of the week as it is scheduled to do. >> and a reminder that the cuts could kick in by the end of the week, if they don't get their act together in congress. >> yep. all right, that does it for us here on "the closing bell." thanks to you for watching. see you, sue. "fast money" starts right now.
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and live from the nasdaq market site in new york's times square, i'm mandy drury, sitting in for melissa lee. apple in focus. can david einhorn and apple shareholders finally make the company cough up its cash? karen's got the fine print ahead of a key meeting tomorrow. plus, retail detail. from high end to low end, we're going to go on a shopping spree for the best names in retail with an industry pioneer. and the fear trade. why the latest moves in the vix are bad news for the bulls. but first, let's get straight to the traders. hello, everybody. >> hello. >> good to see you all again. dan, your top trade today? >> here's the thing. i'm kind of the bear here, everybody wants to buy, i actually covered some shorts today. heerms the thing. you get a move off of a high like we just had, and you have to take what's giving to you. i want to cover a little things
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like the qqq, that i was short for last few days. they're going to bounce back. you have to look for opportunities to resell them. >> what about you, guy? >> i have an interesting one. hello, amanda. how are you? iron mountain, irm. very interesting name. we don't talk about it, but it's pushing up against levels we last saw basically in mid-2011. i think the stock breaks out ahead of earnings on thursday. so, look at iron mountain tomorrow. >> whatever happened to ladies first? karen, you weigh in now. >> that's fine. you're the lady here, as well, so you, you were first. couple things in retail today were interesting. macy's, we'll get to that. we saw strength there. target, which is a name we've liked for awhile, traded particularly well today but sold a little bit into it. >> and we're going to talk a lot about retail later in the show. and keith, what was your trade? >> i did not short gold, but i did short treasuries today. reshorted the yen, as well. one big trade, it's the same thing to me, down vix, down yen,
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down gold, down treasuries. >> that yen is really a race to the bottom. let's get straight back to the cnbc headquarters and get a check on one of today's big market movers. josh lipton? >> well, apple reverse, earlier losses and marf fuching higher today. that as tim cook gets ready to take the stage tomorrow at the cheap's shareholder meeting. now some argue that the shareholder meeting will likely disappoint. their argument, the headline making news recently, of course, has been all about what apple should do with its big pile of cash. how much more, if any, of that cash should be returned to its owners. but such questions aren't ans r answered at shareholder meetings. apple in the green today, but of course, it's had a rough ride, down some 36% from its record high. back to you, guys. >> back above, what, $700 a share back in september of last year. thank you for that, josh. well, karen has been keeping a very close eye on the proxy battle between apple and einhorn. karen, this is your fine print and you are, i understand,
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outraged about this. >> well, i am. a lot of people out there saying, what's david doing, he's wasting everyone's time and money and it doesn't make any difference, and it does make a difference. because this is the shareholders' money. what david was trying to do was create a mechanism for shareholders to be able to send a message to the company, which is, do something, and he has a creative plan, do something to deliver cash back to shareholders. and the company has really been sort -- they talk about what a silly side show this has been. i completely disagree with that, and here's why. this company has a history of dismissing the shareholders' interest in what to do with the cash. if we go back and we look several years ago, in 2009, they spoke of the strode their opportunities for companies with the cash to take advantage of them. okay. understood. 2009, the world changed a lot. that's understandable. what did they do? nothing. okay, so, 2010, what happens? again, they say, you know, we'd
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like to continue to keep our powder try, because we strongly believe that one or more very strategic opportunity may come along. what did they do? nothing. in fact, what was the best opportunity that came along? apple stock, which they never bought. then, again, last year, 2012, we were very active in discussions over what to do with the cash pile. finally, they say, $45 billion, but over three years. and in fact, by the end of the three years, they'll have more cash than when they first started to address this in 2012. >> so, what would you like to do with that cash? >> well, i actually -- i think that the -- the einhorn plan is very creative and interesting that also addresses a lot of the things that the company cares about, which is not spending that cash horde, but it would allow the shareholders a mechanism to have value created and to be able to trade that if that chose or hang onto it.
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instead of the board just not listening to the shareholders. they say they do, they really don't. and because they've done such an extraordinary job with the business, they've gotten away with it. >> and ahead of the big day tomorrow, guy, a lot of speculation about whether or not they might split the stock. >> and what would that do? >> retail investor accessibility? >> well, we can have a long conversation about that, i don't think it's bullish per se. does it address -- >> then they only have half as much cash. cash problem solved. i hope they're not -- >> i guess. >> i hope they are not thinking about that. all that splitting the stock does, obviously it does nothing, maybe people who couldn't afford a full share will be able to buy a full, you know, now half share, but that's really not what they should be focused on. >> the cash thing, and we talked about this before, you have to assume they're smart people at apple, they have spoken to every investment bank known to man vice versa.
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or, they still feel it necessary to hold onto it. what do they see that the rest of us don't see? in terms of the stock at $449, it feels like it wants to put in a base here, but i still think there's one more flush to the down side before it gets interesting again. to me, $450 and apple right here is no man's land. >> i think what they saw is an idea they didn't consider. i really don't think this company thinks like david einhorn does about financial restructuring, cash flows, d distributing crash. when a team thinks they're smarter than everybody else, the first change they do is poo-poo that idea. if they executed on half of this, the stock would rock and roll. >> let's go to mike khouw. what is your reaction, mike? >> well, you know, the options were a little bit positive today. i wouldn't worry about splitting the stock. they're going to issue mini options. there will be a mechanism for retail investors to participate. this is the shareholders' company. and i think that's what they should focus their time and attention on, as well. >> okay, mike. it's been a tough time to make a
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macro call on the market. last week, kooelt aeith and den gartman squared off on how investors should be positioning. >> in the currency market, in the gold market, the copper market, in the energy market and in equities all tell me, better to go to the sidelines. >> now you're oversold. so, you buy today. if you believe the world's going to end because gold, oil and copper is going down, then, i think you're going to have more issues that i'm going to have going down that road. >> okay, keith, give us a trading update on how we feel today? >> today was better than yesterday, thank god. i mean -- this has been a good back and forth. again, you have to get the update versus this price. dennis and i had this debate at 1499 or there abouts in the s&p. you have to answer the question again today. is a strong dollar good for the country, does a strong dollar deflate the commodities cycle. does that give you the only thing that hasn't happened in this country for half a decade,
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which is growth. he doesn't like what he sees in come mod tips and i absolutely love it. >> okay. let's see if dennis gartman is still staying on the sidelines. dennis, welcome toll t the show. >> yes, i am still absolutely firmly resolutely on the sidelines. i loved stocks in october and november and december, i loved them in january -- i just don't like them now. it's time to go to the sidelines. cash is not such a bad thing to hold. i couldn't -- i wouldn't be at all surprised if we had five, seven, maybe 10% on the downside from the highs. i'm in the -- my job in the market, when i watch something move 2%, 3% against me, i get concerned. something i think can move 5% against me, i get greatly concerned. if i think it can move 10% against me, i'm really concerned. the type of action we've seen this week and last week, to me, is a great concern about where the market can go. triple digit moves, what, four out of the last five days and
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yet we've gone nowhere to the upside. we are on the downside. i'm on the sidelines and happy to be there. >> really does feel like bigger guy rations in the market are becoming the norm, right? we had it so quiet, steadily moving to the upside for so long. what would bring you back from the sidelines and into the market again? >> probably nothing for awhile at any rate. i want to own bonds, i want to own gold and i don't want to own the euro. i don't want to own stocks. we'd have to go sideways at least probably have to go do down -- if we went sideways for a month, you might convince me to come back in and be a buyer of stocks, but on balance, i suspect we'll probably go lower first, so, it will be price action that brings me into the market. we understand that the economy is doing reasonably well. we understand, or i understand, that mr. bernanke is here and will continue to offer reserves to the system. we understand that commodity prices are under pressure and in the long run, that's good for industrial activity. but the fact that tin broke,
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crude oil broke, tells me that too many people own these things and for awhile, it's a risk environment. >> see, i think we agree on that. i'll short commodities and take that in my back pocket because i like that, and i think producers like that. again, i think you have to make the call. is it a 2% to 3% correction and you buy them, i say yes or you think it's a 7% correction, and you could be watching this thing make higher highs, which i do think we're going to do. >> hey, dennis, it's dan. you guys mentioned the volatility that kind of came before the equity volatility in commodities and currencies in the last week. one thing really interesting about yesterday, you didn't see, while stocks like morgan stanley, which are perceived to be on the risk of any sort of euro contagion, you didn't see cds pick up at all or any of the u.s. banks, but equity vol picked up to me. that kind of signals that people are just looking to kind of take some profits in equities that acted very well but it didn't signify and equity land that
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there was this massive risk off situation that's right about to hit us here. >> you know, dan, the problem is, when you have, whether it's important market tops of interim market tops, they never look like there's going to be fundamental news to take them lower. they always just decide to go lower. what bothers me and what really bothers me greatly is the fact that the bond market is doing very well. under a normal circumstance, if somebody told you yesterday that the dow is going to be up 115 point us, where's the bond market? everybody would have said, it's got to be lower. wrong, it's up. and i think that's important to understand. i think what it's telling you is that this really is a -- risk is being taken off the table. that's not such a bad thing. and 5%, 10% on the down side probably will restore health. pay attention to what the bond market is doing. i think the bond market is the smartest of the markets. and there's a reason it's going up. >> that's what rick santelli always says. bond market, the smartest of all the markets.
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dennis, real quick. gold is back above $1,600. are we back on the uptrend now and where do you see the high for the year in. >> i don't think we're going to see new highs for the year. perhaps the worst of the liquidation in gold might well have run its course. i'm still long of gold in yen terms. i think the only thing i'm going to change is, i may actually start buying a little gold in euro terms, because i think the euro has some problems ahead of it. but is gold going to go rushing on the upside? not if crude oil is under pressure. not in copper is under pressure. gold may hold steady in dollar terms, but it could do better in foreign currency terms. >> thank you for joining us, dennis. it is time not for pops and drops, the big movers of the day. going to start with a pop, pultegroup. keith? >> fantastic new home sales news. at the end of the day, that's a tough head wind that people thought was going to be oncoming. more of a tail wind. i think the housing stocks go
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higher. >> okay, we've got another pop in the form of macy's, popping about 3%. karen? >> yeah, macy's, very strong in the earnings front. they preannounced a few weeks ago, but this was really good. they're cooking on all cylinders. >> and another pop, all the pops, cabot oil and gas. mike? >> yeah, so, after last week's earnings which came in better than expected, couple analysts lazi raising their price targets on the stock. so, a little bit better than the street is expecting and moving the targets up to reflect that. >> we've got to get the other side of the coin and look at the drops. we have tyson foods dropping 3.7% today. dan? >> yeah, the company's out there talking about food prices going up and mar gyps shrinking that's got to hit the stock here. so, this one, you may want to avoid until you hear better news. >> another drop in the form of cf industries, this dropping 1%. guy? >> all these stocks had big runs into jan. they've been selling off since. 190 is where it needs to hold. looking pretty interesting here.
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>> and a pop for honey boo boo. >> what? >> does appear that the united states just couldn't contain alana thm pson, the 7-year-old star and her georgia family. they'll now be seen across europe, australia, lucky hometown australia and in latin america and their hit reality show. but is the world ready for honey boo boo? well, the answer seems to be yes. reports saying that it is already the third-most popular show in -- where do you reckon? >> poland. >> i'm not going to take the bait to make a joke. it's not right. when you watch -- have you seen that show? >> i have never seen it. >> you said it's going to be in australia? >> apparently so. >> call your friends. >> my mom and dad, sit down for some quality viewing. okay, coming up, a former retail ceo turned consumer fund manager. tom stemberg coming up. but first, the specks on
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home depot's realally. dan and guy, a "fast money" street fight coming up next.
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home depot seeing its best day in almost four years. shares climbing about the nation's largest home improvement retailer reported better than expected earnings. so, we're going to target home depot, today's street fight. guy is our bull. dan is our bear. guys, gentlemen, you have a total of 90 seconds to make your case. guy, you're first. >> good to have you on board, mandy. home depot, we've talked about this name for years now. i believe regardless of the housing market we're in, it's a sweet spot for home depot. frank blake has done a tremendous job over the last six years. they always overdeliver. and their balance sheet is teflon. not only is their dividend secure, but look at the $17 billion buy-back. they had it today. improving margins. dan's going to talk about valuation, but home depot, to me, is a stock that continues higher here. >> dan? >> here's the thing. you can't argue with results here, but at this point, the stock was up 5%, it's 3.5% from
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the all-time highs made back in 2000. you have a stock here, $100 billion market cap, okay? trading at 22 times trailing earnings. 19 times forward earnings. they are expected to grow 15%. here's the thing. sales are only growing at single digits. low single digits for the next few years here. at some point, a stock that is so overbought like this over the long-term, i think, has to -- you have to take a pause here. we have sequester coming up, $4 gas at the pump, we have a lot, a lot of good news in the housing market at current valuations. i think it's a little rich. i'm not telling you you have to pick a top here. i don't think you should put new money to work in this stock. >> okay, so, you just advocating a bit of pause. gentlemen, thank you, very much. and you, dear viewer, can tell us who you think won the street fight. tweet us using #bull or #bear. going to have the results at the end of the show. mike khouw, i want to get your ideas on how options traders are
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playing home depot. >> yeah, so, the options market saw more than five times the average daily volume in home depot today. if you were looking at it, at first blush, might look pretty bullish. a lot of calls trading. but in fact, many of those calls were being sold. people were talking profits. and one of the trades that stuck out to me was the january 55 puts. over 5,000 of those things traded for about two bucks. that's a bet obviously that the stock could be below $53 or so by next january. that's a ways off, but that l d lends itself to a bearish tenor, i would suggest. what's going on in the options market, people are taking profits, getting more guarded. >> okay, well, why don't we stay on the home improvement theme and take a bit more of a closer look at some of the home improvement retailers. we are joined now by tom stemberg, former ceo of staples. so, welcome to the show. great to have you with us, tom. i'm asking you to take sides here and of course it's nothing personal, but who do you decide with, the bulls or the bears on
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a name like home depot? >> i'd be with the bulls. i think guy's got it right. frank blake, my college classmate who, about the same time imretired became a ceo and has done a fabulous job. and i've had the privilege of walking stores with frank and seeing how he values their people and has brought back the culture that made home depot great. and i would not bet against him in any circumstance. >> smart man, tom stemberg. >> we've got to, tom, a real fly of earnings coming out. let's start with macy's. did that impress you? >> not as much as you would think. i think the fact of the matter is, a lot of what's going on now can't be generalized about. you have to look at specific industries. and in the department store industry, what everybody's got going for them is, they're competing with jcpenney. and when a company's giving you 20% of their revenues plus and throwing it back into the marketplace, that leaves a lot
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of scraps for folks like may sip's to pick up. >> mr. stemberg, it's karen. i'm long macy's and short jcpenney, who, i think they're taking share from. but i have read that you liked jcpenney, i don't note about the stock. be interested to hear what you say about that, but you like ron johnson's plan for the strategy. i wonder if you can talk about that. >> ron johnson has done what, in theory, everybody in retailing ought to do. get out of this high-low pricing mechanism, which is incredibly expensive, and inefficient for the consumer. try to bring unique products to the marketplace as he did at apple, et cetera. so, the plan, in theory, is great. that's what i've said. having said that, i'm not sure he's going to get to execute it to its fruition, because if you lose the kind of money they're losing and lose the kind of market share they're losing and now revert back to the high-low stuff and your unique lines may end up in a courtroom battle, the important ones in martha
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stewart. i just wonder how it's all going to play out, despite the fact he's got the right strategy. >> i'd be really interesting in knowing what you think about the macro environment. u.s. consumers being hit with high gasoline prices, with uncertainty on the political side, sequester, not to mention the payroll tax hike. how do you think they're going to fare this year? >> well, i'm not wildly optimistic. i think things are going to bumble ahead, little bit slowly, you know, 2%, 3% kind of comparable store growth for the average retailer. which is not exciting, because these impact, you know, folks in the broadcast business look for these impacts instantly. you don't really figure this out for a couple of months. and the people in the middle of higher income groups that get hit by this 3.8% obama care investment tax that applies to everything on your tax return. they haven't begun to factor that in yet. so i'm not sure you've seen the full impact yet. i think it's going to be sluggish for quite some time.
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not horrific, but sluggish. >> kareit's karen. let me take you back to staples. i think we're long staples because i love the idea of the office max/office depot merger, which i think will be allowed to happen. of the three of them, which would you rather own? >> well, my bias is always to great management and a lot of the folks i had the privilege of working with at staples are still there. ron sergeant and his team. i think they are clearly the best team in the industry and one of the best in retailing, so, despite the head winds they've face as industry, with reduced paper consumption and so forth, i'd bet on them for the long-term. >> tom, great to have you on the show. thank you so much. let's do some trading then. what's the bottom line here? >> i like staples. i think they'll be a big beneficiary of that merger. >> okay. on deck, what one stock market pro is telling his clients as the threat of deep spending cuts intense phipps. that sequester deadline is just
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three days away. later on, a deeper dive into the market's fear factor. more "fast money," heading your way ahead. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves...
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welcome back to "fast money." i'm josh lipton. priceline enjoying a nice pop in the afterhours. the online travel agent reporting adjusted earnings that beat the street. gross bookings up 33%. international bookings up 40%. domestic bookings up 4.4%. the outlook in line with
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consensus. the ceo taking dow jones that price line saw continued stabilization in europe as well as high eer rates of growth for asia and north and latin america. mandy? >> josh, thank you. what's the trade on the back of the priceline story? >> it's what josh said. if they can stabilize in europe and asia, that's what caused the earnings miss they had in the summer that was after the olympics and this caught people bill surprise. this is a high valuation name that's growing pretty fast. if you can continue to see the growth they're talking about, 20% plus a year and getting it overseas and broodened their market share, in an area that a lot of these countries in asia are not used to booking online. they still walk into a travel agent and do this sort of thing. there's a lot of growth opportunities for priceline. it is priced to perfection. when they slip up, they're going to get nailed. >> given the choice, i would still walk into a travel agent, as well. but they're pretty hard to find these days. i like people to do stuff for me. >> really? keep that in mind. >> going to get a lot of tweets for that.
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>> bring them on. it's @mandycnbc. investor worry intensifying as the sequester deadline is looming large. in the spending cuts are triggers, gdp is forecast to drop at least a half a percent. let's go to michael farr. good to have you on the show once again. first of all, i want to get your thoughts on bernanke today. i guess once a dove, always a dove. did he calm the market some what, we're going to be here forever kind of thing? >> there's no question. don't you think i ought to have a turtle as a logo for slow money? it sounds kind of boring. and really, i'd like to spend time talking about these people who do things for mandy. i think there's a news business to start there. okay, bernanke did it again, basically. bernanke came out, markets were worried. a couple of really bad down days. he said a couple of things, basically, he said he's going to keep up kwant day five easing,
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fight the other fed governors and he said that he thought stock valuations were still good. may west said too much of a good thing could be wonderful, well, we get it. it doesn't feel real. so, i think it doesn't make sense to swing for the fences, particularly for the safe money kind of clients i have. >> so, what are your picks here? you're getting defensive? >> well, i'm always a little bit defensive, and on that side of my portfolio, i own proctor & gamble, as one of the names i own. you know, this is a couple hundred billion dollar company. 18 times earnings. good dividend, 2.62%. i think those earnings can grow 8%, 9%, plus the dividend. you've got an 11% stock. a couple hundred billion dollar company. they sell gillette and crest and things like that. economic times get stock and stocks start going south. i like that one. >> you always have to clean your teeth, right? >> well, you hope. could go on the list of things you want people to do for you,
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mandy. >> oh, yeah, i'd like someone to clean my teeth every morning, too. do they have someone who does that? >> you'd get volunteers. johnson & johnson is another stock i like. 13 1/2 times earnings. again, 8% to 9% earnings growth, with a 3.2% dividend and a triple a balance sheet, a couple hundred billion dollars in market capitalization. i mean, for a portion of your portfolio, if you get 8% to 9% earnings growth and a 3% dividend, i'll take kind of 12% for a safe part all day long. >> right. >> and finally, i'll toss medtronnic. not quite as large, $45 billion in market cap. they make medical devices. 11 1/2 times earnings. >> okay. >> 8% to 9% earnings grou s gr. a-plus rated balance sheet. i think these are three solid core names that nobody's going to have hart palpitations about, but i think you make some money over the long-term.
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not your whole portfolio, but a very good anchor. particularly when we have no idea what markets are going to do as we go through sequestration and everything else. >> wish we had a crystal ball. keith, what do you think about some of the picks by michael farr? >> well, he's got it sequestration, number one, is good for the dollar. fiscal sobriety in this country is good for the dollar. strong dollar and at the end of the day, that puts purchasing power in your back pocket. i think this is what people legitimately have upside down of this. starting to fear monger about sequestration, not useful. if we get a stronger dollar out of it, that's what you get, which is 71% of the u.s. economy, which is consumption growth and that's what's going to bring the growth back. >> okay. >> but if we see the sort of job loss that sequestration is projected by cbo, i mean, it certainly looks like -- >> michael, if you are using the cbo for your estimates, i can't help you with that. >> bernanke said it. >> if you are using him, i doubly can't help you with that.
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>> who else do i use? >> probably use somebody else. per unanimous keep's been wrong 70% to 80% of the time. why would you start there? i had him in my office, he told me flat-out that he doesn't trust his own estimates when he was there. i mean, you cannot start your investment portfolio with where the government's estimates are. for god's sakes. >> if you take more money out of the system, it does make sense that growth is going to face a head wind, regardless of what these guys say and bernanke does have his hand on the faucet. >> he does, indeed. thank you so much, michael farr. ahead on "fast money," is the spike on the fear gauge of note to the bulls? we'll get more right after this break. we'll get more right after this revolutionizing an industry can be a tough act to follow,
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welcome back, everybody. we do have some breaking news on papa john's. they are saying they are restating their earnings for the years of 2009-2011. the stock has been halted on the back of that news. and, of course, we'll follow the story and bring you anything more than we do here. guy, i want to quickly bring you in on that. what do you make of this? >> you can put me on the spot. worse has happened to me. this stock made an all-time high today. it trades around 19 times forward earnings. watch do you make of it? i can't be particularly good, i
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mean, if what i heard is correct, we're talking about a few years of restatement, so -- i don't know. it's not a big short interest in the name. as i said, valuation is 19 times, an all-time high today. this is a void until we sort of, you know, know what's going on. >> absolutely. watch for when it starts trading once again, see what happens to the stock. guy, thank you very much. in the meantime, why don't we look at what's happening with the vix. surging, more than 37% over the past week alone. the jump in the fear gauge coinciding with the markets approaching their all-time highs. just how bad of a signal is that for the rally? let's take a deeper dive with paul hickey. we were up, what, 34% yesterday in the vix, down about 11% yesterday, things seemed to calm down a little bit. what do we make of this? >> what we saw today is textbook for what you say a day after. 27 times, it's spiked more than 25%, the average return of the s&p 500 is 80 basis points. today, we were up 65 basis points in the s&p.
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it is to be expected. now, if you take a step back and look longer term, these spikes in the vix have typically been led to periods where the equity market has been down. the vix had a big spike following a, you know, when the s&p 500 was within 1% of a 52-week high. >> i know there's always been some kind of academic debate as to how goodpredictor the vix is anyway. >> one of the things, when you do see a big spike like this, items you the market wasn't positioned correctly. last week, we began seeing some signs that, in the short-term, the market is getting a little ahead of itself and increasing headwinds. we saw $3.75 gasoline per gallon, that's happened four other times before. every time, from the first day it hit $3.75, the market saw a decline of 4% in the next six months. so, it is something to be a little bit more, it adds to the
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list of worries. >> dan, come in on the vix conversation. >> sure, i mean, first of all, that post was great this morning. i saw it first thing. here's the thing. at the end of the day, when you have a move like that in vix, when there really wasn't a lot going on, i don't know htoo man option traders that spend time on spot vix. you could have bet the house that it was going to be down, spot was. but when you look at how the futures curve, it actually remaybed kind of stuck in there, which is telling me that traders looking out are expecting a higher volatility regime in the next few months. >> yeah, i think that would go right along with higher volatility, typically leads to weaker markets. and historically, that's what we tend to see when you do have the big spikes in the vix. short-term, you see a rebound exactly like we saw today. going forward, you see the market drift lower. and even average negative returns over the next week and month. >> got it. paul hickey, great to see you. thank you very much for coming in today. coming up next, if you're looking for a way to play global
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let's get a market flash now, back at the mothership with
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josh lipton on a name that is moving now. josh? what is it? >> hey, there, mandy. we're watching first solar, which is getting hammered in the afterhours. solar company reported a quarterly profit, reversing a year ago loss. the problem, the outlook, or the lack of an outlook. first solar didn't offer an earnings and sales outlook for 2013. analysting telling reuters the company was awaiting outcome of trade disputes. the share is down hard in the afterhours. mandy? >> we talked about this one, i think, last week or maybe a week and a half or so ago and the stock had a nice run and we talked about that ahead of that curve and as it rallied, i believe on a tusz, we said, might be time to pull the rip cord on this one. stock was trading mid 30s. now, with this move lower, you're going to have a monster volume day tomorrow in this stock tomorrow, without question. a lot of shorts will cover it. i'm not saying to go out and buy it on the open, i don't think that's the play. but this gets down to 27, $27.25, worth a look. >> thanks for jumping in there.
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i was listening to the breaking news, chris chris signs state internate gambling bill into law. get cracking, everybody. >> are you a fan? >> i am a fan. he's kind of a guy who calls a spade and spade and doesn't shy -- >> doesn't mince words. has to drop a few, but i love the man. >> oh. >> nothing to do -- >> he's got a business side to him. you have to try to get tax revenues. >> absolutely. it is good revenue. >> you have to get with the times. caesars, for example, whether or not it was inside information, you can look at the chart and tell me yourself, but volume was going up ahead of this and a plentiful amount of volume at that. people have been trading in front of this. this happens, there are ways to play it and internet gambling is a big deal. there's a lot of different things we should be doing work on after this announcement. >> absolutely. we're going to take a quick break here on "fast money" -- okay, no, okay.
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we're going to go straight into what's happening out there in the currency world, money in motion. fears in europe sending the euro to seven-week lows earlier on today against the greenback. so, will the head winds continue for the currency? and how should you be trading it? let's ask amelia bourdeau with today's money in motion trade. what's the trade in the euro on the back of this and against which currency? >> hi, mandy. you're right. yesterday, especially euro took the news very hard that the election result was inkconclusie in italy. today, it traded along the line of 1.30. 1.30 is a big psychological level. bum we did fall very heavily today with the new zealand dollar down 1.5% in a day which is a huge move. so, going forward, i would like to short euro and be long the new zealand dollar. i think kiwi fell too much and today the price action will reverse. so, i'd like to enter the short euro kiwi trade at 1.5850. i'm targeting downside level of
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1.5550 and a stop at 1.6010. >> okay, amelia bourdeau of west pack, the australian bank -- >> your point is what? >> no point. just wanted to mention australia. >> australia. >> trail australia. coming up on "mad money," cramer has the ceo of imugen. and then, the ceo of koritso oil and gas. plus, a check of the charts for all the bargains. all of that coming up at the top of the hour. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today.
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let's play, the good, the bad and the ugly with guy adami. first, the good. we always start with the good. earlier this month, guy weighed in on church and dwight during a game of hold 'em and fold 'em. >> hold 'em is the answer. >> obviously. >> the quarter was outrageous. and what transpired in new orleans, i mean, sales are going to go through the roof. hold 'em. >> nice call, guy. >> you know what i was talking about? what transpired -- you know --
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you have any understanding what i was talking about? >> no idea whatsoever. >> take a look at their product line. church and dwight, outstanding. hold 'em. that's a different game. bad -- it's still good. still good. church and dwight. >> still good. now, onto the bad. the same day as his church and dwight call, guy was drilling down on diamond offshore and this is what he had to say. >> the quarter wasn't what it needed to be, but this stock's had a nice run. i think it's just a pull back. i still like the name overall. >> well, the shares have since fallen since that call, about 9%. >> this is the magic of television, amanda drury. i'm going to say yes, it is lower, no doubt. but the stock, that was february 5th. few days later, that stock was trading $76.50. so, not that horrible a call. now all the stuff that's going on with bp, the space is sort of messy right now. but i think diamond offshore is okay here. $69.50? it was a good call early, bad call late, still think it goes
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higher. >> and -- >> you know the name of this game? what's the name of the game? >> the good, the bad and the ugly. >> two of the things, so what we like to do is an ugly thing. maybe brian sullivan -- >> oy -- >> look at that. that's dan in his bear suit. >> are those pajamas? >> bear suit. >> you sure? >> feety pajamas. >> that's what you sleep in. >> adorable. >> it is? >> it really is. you don't like that? >> it's called a onesie. >> okay. well -- sometimes it's a little tough to buy the losers and sell the winners, right. so, let's play hold 'em and fold 'em. first up, we have the high, which is clorox. trading at a record high again. this stock has surged more than 23% this year. been among the best performers in the consumer staples sector. guy? >> yeah. hold 'em. absolutely. they make those wipes, all those crazy people out there, you know, worried about the flu? >> hold 'em! >> hold 'em. until this flu scare goes, you hold 'em. any time you hear the word flu,
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buy clorox. >> you have to -- >> nothing like that, but that's the what makes you feel, that's fine. wipe it all down, baby. >> okay, next up, coach hitting a new 52-week low. this brand is down over 40% from its all-time high. karen? hold it, fold it? >> this is a tough one. we haven't seen it at this multiple in a long, long time. i don't know if kors is taking share, but it is getting so cheap that i think it's worth a look. their great ceo leaving next year, but i'd take a shot. so, i don't know, buying them the same as holding them? >> hold 'em! >> okay, all right. hold 'em. go with hold 'em. >> hold 'em for coach. okay, you tweet it, we trade it. let's get to some of your tweets to our crew. we have, first of all, fahid, he's tweeting, you are prepared, keith, to see rates skyrocket to well above nominal gdp? >> do i like prepared?
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i am prepared -- >> you are a boy scout. >> i am prepared for anything. look, the best way to be prepared for bernanke screwing this up. he's hostage to his forecast and i pointed out earlier in the show, the forecast is wrong 70% to 80% of the time. so, the best way to be prepared for that is the short the long-term bond market. we're recommending that. tlt is your position there. >> okay, karen, mark asks, karen, i'm in the house of pain without alcoa. buy, sell, hold? average cost is 12 bucks. >> well, this is a really interesting question. comes up a lot. i don't know anything about alcoa, per se, but the thing that's interesting about this tweet is that he talks about his cost is $12. that is absolutely irrelevant. that shouldn't have any place in his decision making at all. so many investors have that as the single most important piece of information when they make decisions and it's just backwards. >> right on. yeah. >> are we allowed to say that? family show.
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>> guy, roger tweets, based on solid numbers from home depot, does it make mas a buy on this sell? >> connecting the dots, i dig that. and we talk on twitter all the time, but i would still rather houn hd here. the run up to 21 in mas was a short covering rally. i think it does pull back a little bit. i think hd is a better play, though, if mas gets down with a 17 handle -- breaking news. >> okay, we have faa allowing boeing 787 test flights by next week. we're going to be watching. see if they get off the ground. >> trade boeing right here? >> weigh in. >> when you think about it, since this incident happened with 50% -- >> right back up to where it was before the bad news came out, right? >> kind of weird. the world is ending according to some people. this stock should be down for a lot --
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>> and it's one that's on people's short list for sequester, too. >> sequester, i forgot. the sequester, is that what you're talking about? >> okay, in the meantime, your first move tomorrow when we return. we have more "fast money" coming your way. at tyco integrated security, we consider ourselves business optimizers. how? by building custom security solutions that integrate video, access control, fire and intrusion protection. all backed up with world-class monitoring centers, thousands of qualified technicians,
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